Is Learning Superforecasting Methodologies Of Probabilites A Reasonable Solution

So I can in fact state that I did not see that coming, though we then of course can go into debate as to what I meant by the extremely VAGUE nature of such a comment.

In fact the Superforecasting in the Title is a nod toward another book I recently purchased

“Superforecasting, The Art & Science of Prediction” , Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner

(Both authors having a number of previous interesting books and so on under there belts).

 And of course like many a book previously and like many to come, this delves into the realms of best practice as utilised by some long term studies of people from all walks of life, who generally manage to consistently outperform the rest of us in society on a broad and wide selection of questions as to prediction.

In fact, the strategies and explanations of said strategies are perhaps one’s that many who have perhaps taken up such studies have come to recognise previously.

Very often we fall into traps of wanting YES, NO, MAYBE like answers that are vague at best, and the author of this book has carried out studies spanning some 20 years of scientific research on decision making and the field of “judging judgment” and actually contributed to some change of emphasis as to how peoples can improve mastery of prediction strategies and techniques.

Those “how they think” methodologies utilised by peoples within his studies that defeated so-called experts in very many fields of Intelligence gathering and so on in general.

The basic premise seems reasonable enough in that carrying out these American Government funded studies he has potentially identified some of those UNIQUE markers that anyone can practice and improve their own abilities with.

He included various examples of how people EXPLAINED their methods.

He and his study colleagues would ask questions as to the possibility of such and such an event occurring or happening within a given time frame, and questions were quite specific across multiple areas and topics of life the universe and everything.

What he generally found was that most of us at any level of society do and can perform forecasting on a daily basis, again usually in somewhat autopilot fashion’s, what to do when the traffic lights change and so on.

Though again, the main core idea seemed to be about asking questions about the questions, and not falling into so-called auto-pilot like answers. Both Daniel Kahneman (Economics) and Nate Silver (Statistician) were mentioned, and the book perhaps fits neatly into that WEIGHTS & SCALES, probabilities and percentages realm.

Anyway, so yes I think I fancied reading some more on a topic I have covered a great deal all ready and in fact, this is another enjoyable contribution to the particular area of interest.  I might actually find more interesting information in his previous works, though decided to stick with current releases.

So yes, we had some news relating to Execution/Beheading’s character Jihadi John and I had generally ignored all that thinking it had all gone somewhat quiet on that front, then of course, yesterday evening, whilst at work I see news reports of some Terror Attacks taking place within Paris France.  Strange of course given how France historically known to have a long affinity with Beheading’s and Madame Gullotine.

Not sure if any links or meanings exist between the various goings on, beyond of course what we ourselves try to make out as links, that issue of our so-called ILLUSION STORIES and the way our brains almost have an INSTRANSIGENT REQUIREMENT to make sense of new knowledge fitting in with previous knowledge.

That ILLUSION issue one that is covered within the mentioned book, though perhaps not in as much depth as I would have liked, hence my suggestion I may do some further reading.

The ease with which any of us can fall into wrong conclusions and so on, rather than break the mould in which our brain functions and so on.

More strangely for myself, I have recently of course spoken on the POLICE issue, and noted a report suggesting that Professional Policing requires upping the ante in recruitment via having a DEGREE REQUIREMENT.

I personally disagree, and would prefer such options to be part and parcel of the job, have an intial apprenticeship that leads to higher qualification for some roles and duties, just like many other realms have.  The report sited that Social Workers have a degree requirement so why not policing.

I think again, a DIFFERENCE EXISTS between what people want to see in terms of Officers on Patrol walking the beat, as they did historically and then some with further training and ranks having cars and flashing lights and carrying arms and so on.

Anyway that a digression, I mentione the Police issue, though noted yesterday in RELATION to the Russian Doping Scandal and International Athletics, that a FRENCH LED INTERPOL investigation was going to be carried out.

The problem of course that they may well now be wanting to DIRECT INTERPOL on more immediate concerns to the Country’s stability than some jolly foreigner doping scandal.

Yes so that was more of interest, because we can of course state that whilst us British have had former colonies and empire, that the French did also, and it does appear that France seems less able to get on with such former colonies than many other nations.

Also of course you get all that ARAB Sub-group POLITICS.  We noted of course recently that Russia assisted the present incumbant’s within Syria, and likewise you can of course find that differing ARAB STATES also have stronger links than others with various realms.

I think FRANCE (though I could be wrong) actually were generally regarded in positive light by many Arab states historically, often entertaining and allowing terrorists free passage through their borders and so on.

Likewise of course we are in that realm of smokescreen and mirrors, because I also recently mentioned Louis Lane’ Margot Kidder’s visit to Herefordshire (HAY ON WYE) and another older chap at work mentioned she was known for her hard drinking etc, when I mentioned her.  The FRANCE LINK was of course that France featured within SUPERMAN and indeed LEX LUTHER actor GENE HACKMAN was also star of “THE FRENCH CONNECTION”, so it seems to myself at least that I can even with my somewhat ancient or 1970’s childhood movie catalogue make links throughout the broader and wider World.

Likewise a small story though one I believe significant following that Russian athletics ban was a nother major Earthquake of Southern Japan, (the Fukushima had been North East (if memory serves)).

Also missing out on the headlines due to the events in France, was that the Indian President/Premier Modi was at Wembley and managed to fill the venue, who among us could imagine one of our own POLITICAL LEADERS managing a feat like that.

Whilst I am sure some Countries do of course have Leaders giving Stadium Tours and events, it is something that we Brits have generally avoided as a cultural phenomena.  That perhaps something that people within larger nations and populations are well used to.

Likewise of course in America and India and Russia and ITALY and Germany and so on, the FUNDING ISSUE is held in differing light, whereas, our politicians are so slight of hand they spend an awful amount of time convincing us that we are not paying for things that we are later found to be paying for.

Do these attacks in France mean similar events will happen elsewhere, I do in fact think that the PERCENTAGE PROBABILTIES have now increased rather than decreased, though of course as to TIMEFRAMES that is a differing story unfortunately.

WE of course also have levels of Colour Coded Security issues, and such things will likely now be stepped up assuming we are not already at some high status level.

Yes tracing any information trail and CONNECTIONS does of course become easier in some ways and more difficult in others, in the sense that just as many a walk of life, carries out practice exercises for events, you can of course STEP into that alternate role that other peoples and persons may be carrying out.  Likewise many a Country has well-known PROCEDURES having FORMALISED many a strategy and technique.  When such things are published as many are within multiple working life realms, you then wonder as to the possility of some sequence going differently to that which was planned or intended.

FLEXIBILTY is something that many a terrorist group has demonstrated throughout the last Century (at least) and of course some Forces have a mandate to counter such tactics and strategies with like for like tactics and strategies, though the greatest risk, could now well be an increase in VIGILANTISM.

Are other factors grabbing attention, well I noticed some new graphiti along part of my regular walk and routes and so on, and that could well suggest that some next generation of school kids leaving school think they are being original in inventing all the usual extra curricular activities and distractions.

Yes I also failed to publish a list for the Friendlies yesterday, though lack of decent sleep recently seems to be creeping up on myself, all this looking forward to STAR WARS:THE FORCE AWAKENS.

Yes that another article I failed to mention, Tim Peak British Astronaut goes into space a day or 2 before the movie is released, if it were myself I might consider having to cancel the flight (lol).

Yes what can it all mean, well the statisticians and mathematical prediction models are not of course outright decision makers in the yes/no format that many would like, to maintain the way in which they see the World though the GRANULARITY PERCENTAGES that you utilise within the SUPERFORECASTING methodologies are surprising in how much they can increase that other word I have mentioned over and again ACCURACY.

Yes ACCURACY is a great bug bear of mine, that strangely burns hard into my thoughts and feelings and so on, especially when I find myself switching from that 2/3 zone to the 1/3 zone as I did recently.

That was ALMOST explained in a way within that book, hence another reason for mentioning it. So yes I am perhaps in my own little mental World at present and not being overly concerned with things beyond perhaps wanting to do what all others have done before.

FIND MEANING.

Thank you for reading, God Bless and Be Well 😉

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s